Florence!

Honestly, not much to say about Florence today. Forecast is pretty straightforward. Florence will continue WNW today and begin to turn more NW tomorrow on its way to Bermuda. As I discussed yesterday I believe the trough is alittle stronger then the GFS is showing. This was confirmed by the NHC discussion this morning. Thus, my current track forecast takes Florence to the East of Bermuda as a Cat 1 Hurricane Early Monday morning. The intensity forecast for Florence is still rather hard to predict. Both the GFDL and SHIPS models still take Florence to a low end Cat 2 storm. I feel this is alittle too high. Because of Florence's unusual size she has not been able to strengthen, and I doubt she will be able to become a Cat 2 Hurricane. Watches will be going up for Bermuda by tomorrow. Because of her large wind field, Bermuda will definitely start feeling the affects of Florence well before she arrives. The rest of the tropics are quiet today.

By Tammy Hopkins
Daughter of "Empress" of Hurricanes